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July 5, 2017

Green is the new black

There is a new breed of bond in the fixed income world. It’s different, it’s bold – it’s the so-called ‘green bond’ market. As the drive towards environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing continues to gather pace, policy makers and investors alike are waking up to the importance – and benefits – of green bond investing.

Evolution of the green bond market
Like any other bond, green bonds are fixed income instruments that aim to raise funds for new and existing projects through the debt capital markets. Typically, the bond issuer will raise a fixed amount of capital from investors over a set period of time. They then repay the capital with an agreed level of interest payments until the bond matures. Green bonds are no different, with one exception: projects have environmentally sustainable benefits at their core.

ESG and socially responsible investing (SRI) have been around for some time, but the concept of green bonds is relatively new. The World Bank and European Investment Bank (EIB) sowed the seeds back in 2007. Growth was slow in the early years but the message to the private sector was made clear; it’s now down to financial markets and institutions to do their bit in the battle against climate change.

2013 was an important year. Issuance exploded, mainly driven by the issuance of corporate green bonds. There’s been no looking back since. Large institutional investors are showing interest and international support for green bonds is mounting. And the burgeoning demand is being met, primiarily by banks issuing green bonds to finance their own sustainable credit lines. Companies are always looking for ways to become greener too. Apple Inc is the most recent company to hit the green headlines with a US$1bn issue - its second within the last 12 months.

But it’s not just banks and companies getting involved. Municipalities and even governments are joining the party. In December last year, Poland issued the first ever sovereign green bond. France followed with a €7bn raise in January – the largest single green bond sale to date – and Nigeria, Bangladesh, Morocco and the Philippines are all lining up for issues this year.

From strength to strength
The green bond market currently stands at around US$200bn in size.
While still a minute fraction of the fixed income universe, this figure reflects a doubling of growth annually since 2013. The trend is expected to slow marginally this year, although Moody’s still forecasts issuance of US$120bn. This exceptional growth is indicative of the rising recognition of climate risks as well as the raw appetite for ESG-themed strategies and green bonds.

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 was a key milestone in the green bond movement. Signed by 197 countries, and ratified by 148 at the time of writing, the global action plan brings nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. The central aim is to limit global warming to well below two degrees by 2100.

President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the deal sparked outrage among government bodies and policy makers globally. But while many will see this as a blow, Trump’s decision to bet against science and diplomacy is motivating the private sector to take over where the government is failing; in the two weeks following the President’s decision to exit the Agreement, the market responded by issuing bonds worth US$7.2bn. Furthermore, the US is just one of the many countries that have signed up, and the rest of the world has rallied further in support of the Paris Agreement.

A growing and diversifying green bond market:growing and diversiying.fw

Source: Bloomberg, April 2017

The Green Bond Principles
The four Green Bond Principles have been introduced by the International Capital Market Association. These are designed to promote transparency and integrity in the development of the green bond market and consist of the following: (1) Use of Proceeds; (2) Process for Project Evaluation and Selection; (3) Management of Proceeds, and; (4) Reporting.

Measuring the ‘greenness’ of a project isn’t always easy. Despite the good intentions behind the principles, the lack of strict criteria is a concern, as is the fact there is no post-deal monitoring mechanism to ensure compliance. The integrity of the market has held firm thus far, but the risk of ‘greenwashing’ – whereby unsuitable projects are financed by green bond issues – is growing.

China, which led the way for green bond issuance last year, is a good example. A third of their issuance did not meet the internationally acknowledged definition of ‘green’. The reason is down to the fact the Chinese have their own rules around what constitutes a green bond: they allow issuers to use up to 50% of the proceeds to repay outstanding bank loans and to invest in general working capital. Internationally, at least 95% of proceeds are expected to be linked to green projects or assets.

Progress is being made though. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has put together a taskforce on climate disclosure with the aim of ensuring companies become more transparent around business activity in relation to climate change. As the market develops, so too will industry practices and standards.

Does green = lean?
ESG-themed strategies and green bonds aren’t just there as a PR exercise to make companies look good. They need to perform well and deliver positive returns. But does going green mean sacrificing returns? In short, no.

A recent meta-analysisA looked at 2,200 individual studies examining the relationship between ESG criteria and investment performance. The results confirmed that there is a significant relationship between companies adopting ESG principles and financial outcomes. The trend was particularly noticeable for companies in North America, emerging markets and non-equity asset classes.

Correlation between financial performance and ESG factors: by region asset class.fw

Source: Friede, Busch and Bassen. Sponsored by Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Investment and the University of Hamburg School of Business, Economics and Social Science, 2015.

Conclusion – win win
Financial markets can help crack the climate challenge by meeting the growing demand for low-carbon projects around the world. Innovative financial tools like green bonds are driving more capital to these important projects and will continue to do so. The market is still in its nascence and with that comes certain hurdles, notably the fact it is small and therefore illiquid compared to the larger markets. But clear industry standards and more robust market data will accelerate the use and availability of green bonds. Liquidity levels will subsequently rise, making green bonds an increasingly attractive way to invest.

A Friede, Busch and Bassen. Sponsored by Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Investment and the University of Hamburg School of Business, Economics and Social Science, 2015.

The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested

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Risk warning:

Risk warning

The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may get back less than the amount invested.

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